Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 25, 2024

China

An aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, on March 15, 2024. 

Economics

Politics

Without productivity-enhancing economic reform, China's economic growth will likely continue to slow amid insufficient demand and continued over-investment.

Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China

Europe

June 9 European Parliament elections will likely see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains in several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties.

2024 Elections: The European Union

Ecuador

Iran

Israel

A banner depicts IRGC missile models aimed at Israel on April 16 in the Iranian capital of Tehran. The ongoing confrontation may be entering a de-escalation phase after the April 19 Israeli counterstrike to Iran's April 13 salvo against Israel.

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict, Ecuador's Constitutional Referendum

Media

Podcasts

Social Issues

What are the biggest issues with the U.S. healthcare system, and how can we address them?

RANE Insights: Addressing Problems in the U.S. Healthcare System

Snapshots

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Iran will likely respond to Israel's attack, but the scope and size of Iran's response will depend on the scope of Israel's military actions, which is unclear at this time.

Israel Responds to the Iranian Attack

Russia

Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia. 

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's current economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine this year or next, though a drop in oil revenues may eventually combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term.

Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 18, 2024

Iraq

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

Syria

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

U.S.-Iran Relations

Singapore

A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.

Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime

Latest

Pakistan

A welcoming billboard displaying an image of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (left) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is seen along a street in Karachi, Pakistan, on April 22, 2024. 

Pakistan and Iran's embattled pipeline project, which has faced delays amid funding issues and U.S. sanction concerns, could impede recent efforts to boost bilateral cooperation.

For Pakistan and Iran, a Delayed Pipeline Could Undermine Improved Relations

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The intensifying fight against M23 rebels in eastern Congo risks triggering border clashes with Rwanda that could threaten Congolese President Tshisekedi's government and risk disrupting Congo's cobalt exports.

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

Morocco

Moroccan Air Force mechanics examine an F-16 fighter jet at an airbase in Ben Guerir, about 58 kilometers north of Marrakesh, Morocco, on June 14, 2021. 

Pressure from its pro-Palestinian population will not deter Morocco from using Israeli technology to expand its domestic weapons capabilities, as Rabat seeks to catch up to Algeria’s military power and position itself as an arms exporter.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

Moldova

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

France

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

Columns

On Geopolitics

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

Vietnam

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

U.S.-China Relations

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Argentina

Chile

Costa Rica

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

The International Monetary Fund reached a staff-level agreement with Ecuador to provide approximately $4 billion in funding under a four-year Extended Fund Facility, with the deal still subject to executive board approval, Reuters reported on April 25.

Ecuador: Government Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF

India

The second phase of elections for India's lower house, or Lok Sabha, took place in 88 constituencies and 13 states and union territories, The Economic Times reported on April 26. 

India: Voting Commences in Phase Two of Indian Lower House Elections

Philippines

Cyber

The Philippine government announced that a "foreign actor" created a recently circulated manipulated video, or deepfake, that showed President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. directing military action against China, Bloomberg reported on April 26.

Philippines: Deepfake of President Stirs Tensions With China

Vietnam's National Assembly Chair Vuong Dinh Hue resigned from his position and his roles in the Central Committee and Politburo over unspecified "violations and shortcomings" likely related to the corruption of his subordinates, The Straits Times reported on April 26.

Vietnam: National Assembly Chair Falls in Anti-Corruption Purge

Mali

Mali's northern Tuareg rebel leaders announced the dissolution of the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development, as well as their intention to reunite under a new alliance with groups at war against the Malian junta and its Wagner auxiliaries, Radio France Internationale reported on April 26.

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Dissolve Coalition, Form Alliance With Groups 'Against' Junta and Wagner

The United States announced that it had begun constructing a temporary pier in Gaza to support the influx and distribution of humanitarian aid, adding that the pier will likely begin operations in early May with the use of third-country lorry drivers and the Israel Defense Forces providing security, The National reported on April 25.

U.S., Israel: Construction Begins on Temporary U.S. Humanitarian Pier in Gaza

Taiwan

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Chinese Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, Reuters reported on April 26. 

China, U.S.: Blinken Meets With President Xi and Minister(s) Wang

Russia's central bank held its key interest rate at 16% for the third meeting in a row and for the first time this year acknowledged that it will struggle to reach its 4% inflation target in 2024, as annual inflation is currently at 7.8%, Reuters reported on April 26.

Russia: Central Bank Holds Key Rate at 16%, Raises Inflation Forecasts

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Burkina Faso

Niger

South Africa

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Chad

The U.S. Department of Defense will temporarily withdraw around 75 special operation forces from Chad in the coming days, The New York Times reported on April 25.

Chad: U.S. To Withdraw Special Forces From Chad 

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The European Parliament approved the Net-Zero Industry Act, or NZIA, the bloc's plan to strengthen its green manufacturing ecosystem and bolster its production of the technologies needed for the energy transition, a press release from the European Parliament showed on April 25.

EU: European Parliament Approves Plan To Boost Green Tech Manufacturing

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

For Pakistan and Iran, a Delayed Pipeline Could Undermine Improved Relations

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ecuador: Government Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF

India: Voting Commences in Phase Two of Indian Lower House Elections

Philippines: Deepfake of President Stirs Tensions With China

Vietnam: National Assembly Chair Falls in Anti-Corruption Purge

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Dissolve Coalition, Form Alliance With Groups 'Against' Junta and Wagner

U.S., Israel: Construction Begins on Temporary U.S. Humanitarian Pier in Gaza

China, U.S.: Blinken Meets With President Xi and Minister(s) Wang

Russia: Central Bank Holds Key Rate at 16%, Raises Inflation Forecasts

Chad: U.S. To Withdraw Special Forces From Chad

EU: European Parliament Approves Plan To Boost Green Tech Manufacturing

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